Under siege: Ecuador's burning battle against organised crime
Yesterday, gunmen stormed a television studio live on air in Ecuador, following Monday’s declaration of a state of emergency after the prison escape of notorious gang leader, Adolfo Macías, "Fito".
Yesterday’s drastic escalation of organised violence in Ecuador calls for an immediate analysis. In this edition we’ll be analysing the situation by looking at:
Noboa’s new presidency: a term full of violence?
Ecuador’s recent growth in violence and its importance in drug trafficking
Fito’s escape: riots and disorder
The President’s reaction: a state of emergency
The aftermath: television studio attack and nationwide mayhem
What to expect in the coming future?
Don’t forget to subscribe for future analyses and upcoming updates!
Noboa’s new presidency: a term full of violence?
Recently, Ecuador has been marked by the increasing violence of criminal organisations. The 2023 general election was of no exception as the presidential candidate and anti-corruption advocate, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated by Colombian hitmen back in August 2023 during his electoral campaign.
Later in November 2023, Daniel Noboa, was inaugurated as the country’s youngest-ever elected President, having won the elections based upon his manifesto to bring more economic prosperity to the nation and its young people, to improve the country’s security, and to tackle criminal organisations. During his campaign, Noboa initially suggested tackling violence via social policies and educational policies, however, following Villavicencio’s assassination, his rhetoric turned towards militarisation as he promised giving more authority to the armed forces and improved technologies and weapons for the police. The recent surge in violence will be Noboa’s first security challenge of his presidency.
Ecuador’s recent growth in violence and its importance in drug trafficking
Ecuador has been battling against criminal organisations for a long time as Mexican and Colombian cartels expanded and entered the country in a bid to further control the cocaine routes, however, events from this week have led to a national crisis.
In recent years, Ecuador has become a growingly important strategic player for cocaine transit. For instance, in 2015, Ecuadorian authorities seized 63 tons of cocaine which later grew to 180 tons of seizures by 2022. As cocaine production boomed in Colombia, Ecuador is a vital player in transiting the product up towards the United States and to growing cocaine markets in Europe and Asia.
Ecuador’s growing importance as a cocaine trafficking route has led to regional popularity, leading to growing capital surges that have been used to finance the country’s internal criminal groups. At the same time, it has also increased competition between different factions which have led to blood-thirsty rivalry. In the 1990’s only a few criminal organisations existed, however, in recent years, the number of sophisticated groups have drastically increased which have led to growing levels of violence.
An indicator of the growing violence has been the ever-increasing homicide rate. In 2022, Ecuador’s homicide rate increased by 86.3% and later by 74% in the first half of 2023.
The nation’s levels of violence have also been increased by the participation of foreign criminal organisations such as the FARC (Colombia), the Sinaloa Cartel (Mexico), and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (Mexico). These foreign actors have fuelled territorial disputes in Ecuador by supplying the nation’s criminal groups with money and weapons.
Fito’s escape: riots and disorder
Hours before his move to a maximum security prison on Sunday, 8th of January 2024, Adolfo Macías, known as "Fito", the leader of the most dangerous organised group of Ecuador, the Choneros gang, escaped from the Litoral de Guayaquil prison. The Choneros gang is said to have control of the Litoral de Guayaquil prison and many suggest that the gang has closed relations with the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel. Fito had been serving a 34-year sentence since 2011 for organised crime, drug trafficking, and murder. Back in 2021, Fito caused the deaths of more than 79 prison inmates following speculation that Los Lobos and Los Tiguerones had planned an attack against him.
On Sunday, it is said that the 44 year old fainted, however, the prison has been searched, including the roofs and sewers, by more than 3,000 officers and he is nowhere to be found.
The prosecution has recently filed charges against two prison guards who were linked to Fito’s escape.
The President’s reaction: a state of emergency
On Monday, the 8th of January, Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency following Fito’s escape and growing riots throughout the country’s prisons.
Later on Tuesday, the situation escalated as Noboa decreed the existence of an internal armed conflict in Ecuador, ordering the police and army to restore order throughout the country. This is the first time an Ecuadorian leader has declared an armed conflict against criminal groups.
Back in August 2023, Guillermo Lasso, declared a 60 day state of emergency following the assassination of Villavicencio. Also, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral – CNE) stated that the elections, scheduled for August 20, would be moved forward.
Furthermore, Noboa defined 22 criminal organisation groups as terrorist organisations which included the following groups:
The aftermath: television studio attack and nationwide mayhem
Shortly before Noboa’s statements, a group of armed criminals had broken into the TC television station in Guayaquil during a live broadcast where they threatened the television station’s staff with guns and weapons.
Shortly after, specialised units of the Ecuadorian police arrived on site where they managed to arrest 13 of gang members, believed to be part of Los Tiguerones gang, and safely evacuate the victims.
Apart from the attack on the television studio, since Monday, it is believed that over 7 police officers were kidnapped throughout the country alongside 139 prison guards. Furthermore, explosives were found in numerous governmental buildings which included that of the mayor's office of the city of Cuenca and of Guayaquil.
Prison escapes of other gang leaders were also seen. For instance, in Riobamba, in the province of Chimborazo, more than 30 inmates escaped from a prison, among whom was Fabricio Colón Pico, the leader of the Los Lobos group, accused a few days ago of planning the murder of the Attorney General Diana Salazar.
Due to the nation’s current state of violence, the Ministry of Education postponed the return of in-person classes until the 12th of January.
Since 2021, over 400 deaths have been reported in Ecuador’s prisons as a result of rivalry between different gangs.
Noboa came to power with a manifesto to tackle the country’s growing levels of violence. For instance, the President’s security plan includes the creation of a new intelligence unit, tactical weapons for law enforcement and security, and a plan to temporarily hold dangerous prisoners on prison ships. At the same time, he has proposed a referendum that is pending approval by the authorities and with which he seeks citizen support to take tougher measures. Looking at images of the recent crackdown in Ecuador’s prisons, they are reminiscent of Nayib Bukele’s prison crackdowns in El Salvador - will Noboa implement similar measures in the coming future?
What to expect in the coming future?
A state of emergency will continue for at least 60 days which can then be prolonged by Noboa. It is likely that this will be prolonged and there is little likelihood that Noboa will be able to consolidate control over the country’s criminal organisations in the short term due to the organisation’s internal strength and external support.
Given the growing levels of insecurity within the country, we are likely to see the authorities approving Noboa’s proposed referendum on using tougher measures to combat organised crime. At the same time there is a probability that Noboa will bring tougher measures into place via presidential decree given the state of the nation’s security.
Despite the fact that Noboa was quick to react, his solutions currently remain very short-term and he lacks a clear long-term plan to tackle criminal organisations within the country. Currently his responses are escalating the situation which suggests that Ecuador is set to witness a long-term war on drugs.
In 2024, narco-violence and organised crime will continue to haunt Ecuador and the rest of Latin America.
If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to share the newsletter with your friends! Also, feel free to reach out to me, Elin Roberts, on LinkedIn or Twitter if you have any questions, comments, or would like bespoke analyses on Latin America!